Election

By the Numbers: The Election that Shook the Nation

My intentions behind writing this article is to show you by the numbers how Donald Trump managed to beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential race. Advanced warning this article will contain a lot of numbers and statistics, but also include my analysis on how he managed to win. In these swing states such as Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan Trump managed to win the rural counties unlike Romney and he also did much better in metropolitan areas then Romney in 2012. I am going to go into detail about all of these swing states county by county to explain just how Donald Trump took down the political machine known as the Clinton’s.

Florida- Trump 49.1% Clinton 47.8%

The first thing to make note of in Florida is in 2012 Obama won 13 counties, in 2016 Hillary only won 9 counties. The reason the popular vote was so close in both elections was because the counties Obama and Clinton won contained the major metropolitan cities. Obama and Clinton managed to win the same counties that contained the cities of Miami, West Palm, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa Bay, Gainesville, and Tallahassee. However Clinton failed to win some key counties that Obama won such as Monroe county that contains Key West and Jefferson county which is the outskirts of Tallahassee. Also the counties that they both won Clinton’s percentages in 2016 in those areas were not as good as Obama’s in 2012. For example Leon county where Obama got 61.3% of the vote Hillary only got 60%. Broward county which is where Fort Lauderdale is Obama got 67% she got 66%.  Palm beach where Obama received 58% Hillary got 56%. When the Percentage of the total state votes are so close these differences between the two impact the state greatly. The difference in these counties made the difference between Obama winning the state 50% to 49.1% over Romney and Hillary losing 49.1% to 47.8%.

Wisconsin- Trump 47.9% Clinton 46.9%

Wisconsin is slightly different, Obama won this state pretty easily in 2012 and Trump managed to steal it in 2016 by 1%. In 2012 Obama won 36 counties and won the popular vote 52.6% to 46.1%. In 2016 Clinton only managed to win 13 counties and lost 47.9% to 46.9%. The southwest part of the state was almost exclusively Democrat in 2012 but Trump managed to flip the majority of the counties in that area. In Wisconsin Clinton managed to keep the metropolitan areas but couldn’t keep any of the rural areas that Obama won in 2012.

Ohio- Trump 52.1% Clinton 43.5%

In 2012 Obama took 16 counties containing all the major cities in the state, he won the state 50.1% to 48.2%. Clinton only managed to take 7 counties and lost 8 of the 12 northern counties that Obama managed to win. The counties that contained the major cities Clinton did managed to keep but the percentages weren’t near good enough to give her a chance in the state. Athens county Obama got 66.1% Clinton only managed 55.7%. Mahoning county which is where Youngstown is Obama won 63.2% of the vote, Hillary almost lost the county and only got 49.8% of the vote. In Lucas county where Toledo is Obama won 64.3% of the vote Clinton only won 56.0% of the vote. This counties turned the vote around to give Trump an easy win. He also managed to completely take counties that had Dayton, Bowling Green, and Sandusky along with taking 9 more counties that Obama had in 2012.

Pennsylvania- Trump 48.8% Clinton 47.6%

In 2012 Obama took 13 counties and won the popular vote 52% to 46.8%. Clinton did manage to take 11 counties and even flipped one county that Romney took in 2012, however it wasn’t enough to beat. First is Erie county where in 2012 Obama won the county 57.8% to 40.9%, a very large margin. Trump not only made this county close he actually flipped it in his favor 48.8% to 46.8%. In Dauphin county where Harrisburg is located, Obama won it 52.4% to 46.4%, in 2016 Trump narrowed the margin only losing the county 49.4% to 46.6%. Trump also managed to flip Luzerne County which in 2012 Obama won 51.7% to 46.8%, whats most impressive is he not only flipped the county but won in a landslide 58.4% to 38.8%. with these changes from 2012 to 2016 all in Trump’s favor we can see now why Trump managed to flip Pennsylvania in his favor 48.8 to 47.6.

Michigan- Trump 47.6% Clinton 47.3%

In 2012 Michigan was an easy victory for Obama winning 20 counties and the state 54.3% to 44.8%. This was probably the most shocking victory for team Trump by squeaking out the state 47.6% to 47.3%. The question is where did this drastic shift occur? the first notable aspect was Clinton only managed to keep 8 counties. Wayne county where Detroit is Obama won 73.1% to 26.2% in 2012. Clinton won the county by a large margin but it was less than Obama at 66.8% to 29.5% in 2016. Ingram county where Lansing is located, Obama won 63.4% of the vote where as in 2016 Clinton only won 60.9% of the vote. Genesee county where Flint is located, Obama won the county with 63.6%, Clinton only managed to win the county with 52.4% of the vote. With all these differences we can see why it went from almost a 10% Democrat majority to a .3% Republican win for Donald Trump.

These swing states were what won Donald Trump the election. I see a lot of the mainstream media claiming this was a movement from White rural voters. The reality of this election is not an uprising from White men and women across America but instead an uprising among unlikely Trump voters in Metropolitan areas. Though he did not win these inner cities outright, he managed to flip just enough of those voters to win the swing states required to win the election.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. David H.

    November 11, 2016 12:21 am at 12:21 am

    In 2008, I remember Sarah Palin being disappointed that the McCain Campaign gave up on Michigan. Trump did not, and his message hit home here, Just like Reagan did in 1980.

  2. David H.

    November 22, 2016 9:04 am at 9:04 am

    California is talking about seceding from the union because the snowflakes cannot handle the words “President Trump”.
    Let it be known that they will also take 3 trillion of the U.S. debt with them if they secede from the union, their fair share, as well as becoming exempt from all government handouts such as Student loans, food stamps, welfare, healthcare and SSI. Like a millennial living in their parent’s basement being forced to support themselves in the real world, and pay their own way, They will quickly see that life is not always fair. Oh, And they can also pay for their own Military protection as well. The U.S. is paying for enough outside the U.S. for this. If Oregon wants to join California, the same goes for them.

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